The absorption and colonisation of Armenia by Turkey has already become a byword. However, what do these scary and loud words mean in practice and why this time their implementation in practice may become a point of no return?
We understand what it means to be a colony: to have no influence on decisions about our own fate, to be condemned to underdeveloped infrastructure, education, science, medicine, defence, to be second-rate people in the once own country – in other words, to serve the metropolis and not even have a physical future beyond its benevolence. 110 years after the Armenian Genocide, Turkey solved the issue of turning geographical Armenia into such a colony to some extent. What could not be fully accomplished with a blood-soaked and vulnerable Armenia in 1918 turned out to be possible a century later.
Admittedly, it is not so difficult to force a colony to change its master: you just need to seize the moment and outbid the governor. In the early 1990s, when the Armenian world independently decided the fate of Armenia from Shushi to Paris and from Moscow to Washington, both Levon Ter-Petrosyan and the Turkish blockade were powerless against Armenia.
However, by turning away from the Armenians living in these cities, Armenia condemned itself to an eternal search for foreign masters. Of course, this is also the responsibility of the Armenian world, which, firstly, adopted the newly imposed rules of the game, and secondly, allowed its own weakening. Clearly, this was largely the result of the severed synergistic relationship with the Armenian state, but the result would have been different, if at least one of the parties remained committed to the long-term interests of the Armenian nation – instead of the path of least resistance. From the moment when being left at the mercy of others became the norm again, instead of focusing on the challenges of state-building, there was only one traitorous question left: ‘under whose rule do we prefer to be?’.
Obviously, geographical or ‘real’ Armenia in its current format has been left at the mercy of the new Turkish owners. Turkey cannot doubt the loyalty of its Yerevan governors, despite the fact that in his spare time, Turkish satrap Pashinyan is not averse to flattering Moscow, Washington and Brussels. However, for such a major player and the successor of the Ottoman Empire, physical control is more of a tactical issue. It is much more difficult to maintain control and reliably neutralise the Armenians as an independent factor in international politics. Finally, the maximum task is not to disperse this potential of resistance, but to gain control and put it at the service of the empire.
Despite the intimidation by the Young Janissaries in Yerevan, Turkey, as a potential regional architect, has nothing to offer the global players. After centuries of domination in the Greater Middle East, Turkey remains an alien element in the region. And if this has never prevented it from stretching its own borders, then today, when it cannot impress any of the serious players with weaponry, when its economy is in free fall, and the neighbours are less willing to put up with constant blackmail, the new Sultan Erdogan once again faces the question: where to get the necessary authority, connections, finance and influence?
This issue is particularly acute in the context of the undergoing transformation of the world order, whereby the role of transnational actors and networks is expanding: an asset that only a few can boast of. Turkey, which has relied on control and settlement of territories, risks isolation tomorrow – and millions of immigrants in Germany will not enhance its own importance.
As we remember, in the 20th century, the history of the Ottoman Empire was terminated by the physical extermination and expulsion of the Armenians. Of course, the capital seized from them helped the young Turkish state to become an important regional player again. But the blood and capital drained from the Armenians, apparently, was not enough. Today, in order to legitimately control the Armenian Highlands and to claim the Greater Middle East, Turkey just needs to enlist the support of the indigenous and at the same time global Armenian world. Therefore, there is no doubt that Erdogan’s next step will be something that the Armenians themselves have not done in 35 years: creating a transnational network with global Armenian resources.
to a certain extent, the time-serving Pashinyan is assisting him in this dirty pursuit. Over the course of his reign, the latter has been continuously surveying the Armenian world, discrediting its potential leaders, causing further division within Armenian communities, and, finally, solemnly promising in his ‘election’ program to isolate those community organisations that do not support his ‘peace’ agenda.
Adult matters remain within the remit of the master: Erdogan. Having defeated the Kurds and Armenians today, he thinks about the ‘tomorrow’ that Turkey, as an international power, can only have with the support of the Armenian world. He needs the best resources of the Armeniancy – not Judas who kneel and bow to Pashinyan. Therefore, unlike his inept satrap, he will not forget about the Genocide, but will force the Armenians to repeat the mistakes that made it possible. We will not be surprised, if in the near future Turkey starts encouraging the repatriation of Armenians to Western Armenia – ‘fortunately’, the Young Turks of the Third Republic have done everything possible that many Armenians in Spyurk (foreign communities) do not consider the current Armenian ‘state’ and its remnants as their homeland. Thus, the Turkish Sultan would get at his disposal the support of the naive Armenian world, its best minds and investments, global connections and influence – everything that the Third Republic should have gratefully accepted in the 1990s, but voluntarily rejected.
Turkey refuses, on one hand, to be a ruler and, at the same time, a victim of its own geography. Its ruling class is actively looking for a way out of these shackles and sees it in the Armenian world. At the same time, the satrap at the Third Republic sees this Armenian world as a burden and an obstacle on his path to a ‘brave new world’, locking itself in its own mangled geography. This will only lead the Armenian state and nation to forever remain under the rubble of the old world. If there is anything to learn from Turkey, it is not about Armenophobia and Genocide denial, but about understanding the value of the Armenian world.
Unlike the territory, the Armenian world is an indivisible asset, and once we lose it, we will not be able to restore it. It is impossible to support Turkey’s rise tomorrow and restore geographical Armenia the day after tomorrow. The Turkish ‘tomorrow’ excludes the Armenian ‘the day after tomorrow’. The Armenian world has no right to make mistakes.
