Political realism holds that the national interest lies at the heart of foreign policy strategy. Shaping that interest and devising the tools for its protection is the primary purpose of the government of any accomplished state. The tools can be very diverse, for the most beautiful and illustrious aspects of politics are its results. In general, one can highlight two conceptual strategies for protecting and advancing the national interest. The first being a pre-emptive strategy taking into account the largest number of possible scenarios and developing mechanisms to nip the most adverse ones in the bud. This is where the Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu said that it is the mission of a wise leadership to defeat the enemy’s intentions. Strong foreign intelligence and counter-intelligence, stealth diplomacy, lobbying networks, etc. are crucial for a preventive strategy. The second is a reactive strategy. Inevitably, even the most resilient states have to deal with challenging situations arising from unpreparedness or miscalculations. This is perfectly normal, if the state has adequate safety margins and is capable of reacting promptly and efficiently, thereby mitigating adverse events.
Let’s say we have a modern strategically-minded state (instead of a physical territory ruled by a Soviet-style bureaucracy) and a nation (rather than a mere people gathered around social and cultural rituals). Now let us picture that this state emerged as a result of the nation-building endeavours of a national aristocracy, which eventually sprung up when the best-educated and most influential members of the Spyurk (Armenian communities abroad) had begun drawing the right conclusions and acting accordingly. Let’s further imagine that this state has clearly defined national interests, reflected in its fundamental documents: national security strategy, foreign policy doctrine, etc. But let us also conceive that such a strong Armenia, which most often acts pre-emptively, had failed somewhere and enabled its adversary, the authoritarian petrostate Azerbaijan, to secure hosting rights for the COP29 climate summit which would bring there all the democracies of the world. Let us stipulate right away that there can be no complaints towards Azerbaijan, as they are engaged in the same activity as all the other serious players (except for Nikol’s Real Armenia) – that is, real politics.
So, what would a competent genuinely Armenian leadership do? Firstly, it would launch an extensive lobbying and advocacy campaign, exposing the hypocrisy of Azerbaijan as a country that holds its entire opposition in jail and exploits the issue of climate change (a global threat) for the promotion and whitewashing of one man – Ilham Aliyev, who inherited power from his father – Soviet KGB strongman and Communist Party Politburo member Heydar Aliyev. Secondly, it would leverage the miscalculations, mistakes, and the ignorance of the Azerbaijani leadership, which got overexcited over its recent long streak of impressive foreign policy wins and has turned many major players – states, organisations, movements, media, families, etc – against themselves. Thirdly, it would expose the actors that keep providing Azerbaijan with all kinds of support, especially in the military and technical field. An ideal situation to deliver some very sensitive blows to Baku with someone else’s fists.
The most ironic part of this story is that these blows are still being delivered, yet without any engagement by the Armenian side. On the contrary, Turkish collaborationists in Yerevan were overjoyed by the news that COP29 would be held in Baku (and let it happen in the first place). Nikol Pasha was among the first offering congratulations to Aliyev and did not even disguise his willingness to attend the event, expecting to finally consummate Armenia’s surrender and bring his electorate the longed-for ‘peace’. It may seem ridiculous and even absurd, but the 21-year-old Swedish eco-activist Greta Thunberg in five days inflicted far greater reputational and political damage on Azerbaijan than Nikol’s Armenia had in the past five years. However, it starts making perfect sense if we take into account the reality that the Turkish collaborationists’ foreign policy towards Azerbaijan is based on the unquestionable and firm principle of utter obedience and inaction. Besides, Pashinyan cannot be bothered with such petty things as COP29, as his plate is pretty full – he needs to shave off his beard in public and call the Declaration of Independence a threat to ‘Real Armenia’ in his new guise, denounce the Constitution, pursuant to which he rules the country with absolute unchecked power, as well as to prepare his core electorate for referendums to abolish all the laws that prevent him from obtaining the coveted ‘peace’.
Well, why not? Afterwards they can blame the cancellation of the country’s Declaration of Independence on another man, Nikol ‘Beardless’ Pashinyan, who will be declared a False Nikol who reigned temporarily while the real Nikol ‘Beard’ Pashinyan was being abducted and held hostage by 12,000 Wagner mercenaries dispatched by the Kremlin on a regular Aeroflot flight. While some members of the international community are trying to shake the throne upon which the Aliyev clan presides, Nikol Pasha is in effect offering it a lifeline. Well, how could he not to? There must be someone to sign a ‘peace’ treaty with.
We hope this case (as well as hundreds of others) will finally make those who identify themselves as Armenians, who value Armenia and its history, draw the relevant conclusions and make the necessary choices. The Turkish collaborationist government must be recognised as a national threat that is ten times more menacing than the Young Turks and the Musavatists. It is of paramount importance that this is grasped by personalities who enjoy authority and respect in Spyurk, aspiring for the stature of future founding fathers of meaningful Armenia. Any interaction with representatives of the incumbent authorities represents nothing less than legitimisation of the Turkish-Azerbaijani occupation with all the ensuing consequences. Shaking hands with either of them you shake hands with Enver, Talaat and Cemal. No more, no less.
