In God we trust

Over the past few days, we have witnessed several interesting events. A prayer service was held in Yerevan for the return of Ruben Vardanyan and other Armenian prisoners from Azerbaijani captivity. Ilham Aliyev is watching all this. ‘How helpless are the Armenians that they are constantly urging someone to do something. Are these really the same Armenians that we once feared and looked up to?’, Aliyev must be saying to himself, grinning. Apparently, hopes for the ‘international community’ have evaporated, and now God is the last resort that remains. The prospects are bleak, since God created the man in his own image and likeness. Therefore, He supports and helps only the strong. Throughout all times and among all nations, gods have granted their patronage only to those who could make unconventional, bold (though calculated) decisions and bear responsibility for the consequences (and miscalculations). The Gospel of Matthew says, ‘from the days of John the Baptist until now the kingdom of heaven has suffered violence, and the violent take it by force. For all the Prophets and the Law prophesied until John’ (Matthew 11:12-13). God is a realist, and He does not waste time on those who do not learn from their mistakes and, instead of working on them, constantly beg for something.

Surely, the family members of those who are imprisoned in Baku have every right to pray for their return. However, when this happens in front of cameras among a dozen of journalists, it is a political act that must have a clear goal. Perhaps it was done to convey a message to the Christian World? It is unlikely, since it has long been known that Azerbaijan, with the mediation of the Israeli lobby, has established close cooperation with the influential 80 million strong Evangelical community in the United States. The key marker of success in this respect is the deafening silence in September 2020, when Azerbaijan was destroying Artsakh, populated by Christian Armenians, and building hotels on remnants of destroyed churches. Nonetheless, they are not alone in their indifference to the first Christian nation, since the Catholic Vatican is also showing restraint, because the Heydar Aliyev Foundation happens to be a great friend of the Holy See, while Azerbaijan supplies relatively cheap energy resources to keep Italian taxpayers warm. Evangelicals and Catholics are realists, therefore, they cannot be accused of not wanting to be more Armenian than the Armenians themselves, who in 2021 directly, i.e. those who voted for, or indirectly, i.e. those who remained silent, re-elected Nikol Pashinyan, a Turkish collaborationist, who effectively surrendered Christian Artsakh to Azerbaijan.

Therefore, what was the purpose of that prayer service? Apparently, it was to make several contradictory statements. Noubar Afeyan, whom we covered in detail in our earlier article, stated that Ruben Vardanyan is a great Armenian, and the international community must take all measures to force Azerbaijan, which is hosting the COP29 climate summit, to release him and other Armenian prisoners. Afeyan also expressed hope for a ‘just peace” and stated that if the Armenian delegation goes to the summit, it should return with those released from Baku captivity. What is wrong with these statements and why are they not only useless, but also harmful?

Firstly, if Ruben Vardanyan is indeed a great Armenian, then imagine who is Ilham Aliyev, who imprisoned him and on whom Ruben’s freedom depends? Such epithets only strengthen Aliyev’s motivation, since being the executioner of a great Armenian implies reputation that can be transformed into tangible political dividends. How will Aliyev be perceived, if, vice versa, he releases this great Armenian under (non-existent) pressure? The question is rhetorical. Aliyev, as a realist politician, treats Armenian prisoners as nothing more than a political resource, and it won’t be needed as soon as it loses its significance and relevance. The first line of the Gospel of John says, ‘In the beginning was the Word’ (John 1:1). Therefore, one needs to be very careful about what, where, when, and to whom is said. Ruben Vardanyan was careless with the ‘Word’, no point in getting fingers burnt twice and we better learn from his mistakes.

Secondly, in the eyes of the so-called ‘international community’ the interests of Armenian citizens are represented exclusively by the internationally recognised Government of the Republic of Armenia, represented by the Turkish collaborationist Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. For the latter, and, by implication, for the Republic of Armenia, there is no such problem as Armenian prisoners held in Baku. This is a reality that must finally be understood and accepted. Therefore, if we are to urge the international community to do something, it is to put pressure on Pashinyan himself so that he first acknowledges the existence of this issue, and only then issues demands to Aliyev – sounds ridiculous? We have no doubt that Pashinyan played a significant role in the arrest of the former leaders of Artsakh, especially Ruben Vardanyan, and that same international community is fully aware of it too. Once we come to realise this banal truth, we’ll stop knocking on closed doors, because those knocks won’t lead to anything, but ridicule and contempt.

Thirdly. We need to decide on fundamental matters, however. We either recognise that Aliyev is the president of Azerbaijan, who is legitimate and who can be called upon to make a fair peace, or we claim he is a dictator who violates human rights and illegally detains Armenian citizens. If we opt for the first option, then Aliyev, as the recognised leader of his nation, reserves the right to make independent domestic political decisions. Why is this so? It is straightforward: the Turkish collaborationist Pashinyan recognised Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan, thereby implying that Artsakh was occupied by Armenia. This allowed Aliyev to dictate the Artsakh narrative in a simple and understandable manner: those held in Baku prison are separatists inside the internationally recognised Azerbaijan. However, if we follow the second path, we must stop harbouring illusions about summits that legitimise Aliyev and his regime. In terms of political skill, we must talk not only about the Armenian captives, but also about all of Aliyev’s political opponents inside Azerbaijan. Nonetheless, the first step is to stop legitimising the Turkish collaborationist Pashinyan, to stop deluding ourselves that Pashinyan would ever want, let alone achieve ‘just peace’ and return from COP29 with the released prisoners.

Let us repeat once again. Ruben Vardanyan and other Armenian captives are living proof of what should be avoided and what should not be done. Instead of accepting reality and developing a strategic program to get rid of the Turkish colonial regime in Yerevan and shifting to Armenian nation and state building, we witness prayer services, theatrical performances in the form of endless rallies on the streets of Yerevan and the happy faces of philanthropists (not to be confused with nation-building bourgeoisie) being decorated with awards from the Armenian Apostolic Church. Let us close our eyes and imagine how Aliyev, Erdoğan and the international community react to all of this. Do you hear their laughter? Horrible, right?