Armenia at the Crossroads of the Turkic World

Unblocking communications in the South Caucasus will undoubtedly strengthen Turkey’s position in the region, providing Ankara with new opportunities to expand its influence in the Turkic world. Without exaggeration the official Yerevan stands before historical decisions, where the cost of mistake can be fatal.

Karen Veranyan
Karen Veranyan - Orientalist 13346
16

Turkic integration institutes

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the first institutions of integration of the Turkic world with state participation began to be formed under the political patronage of Ankara.

The Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States was founded in 2009 in accordance with the Nakhijevan Agreement, it was recently renamed the Organization of Turkic States (hereinafter referred to as OTS). Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan became founders of OTS.

Turkish President Erdoğan stated that changing the name of the organization would bring new intensity to its activities. This, he said, should not be a cause for concern; on the contrary, it is necessary to strive to become part of this organization based on historical commonality. With the change of the name of the organization, Erdoğan has even greater hopes for increasing the influence of the Turkic world.

In October 2019, at the 7th congress of the organization held in Baku, Uzbekistan became a full-fledged member of the organization. In 2018, Hungary was granted observer status in the organization, and Turkmenistan and the unrecognized Northern Cyprus received that status in September 2021 and 2022 accordingly. In 2023, the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO, not to be confused with OECD) joined them.

In November 2021, at the eighth OTS summit held in November in Istanbul, the “Vision of the Turkic World – 2040” was adopted. It states the need to combine the efforts of Turkic-speaking countries and peoples to counter the challenges of the rapidly changing world order.

In accordance with this document, the OTS, based on historical ties, common language, culture and traditions of the Turkic States, confirms the necessity of political dialogue and solidarity between them by strengthening cooperation and mutual support at both the national, regional and international levels.

Turkey’s strategic potential for expanding representation of the Turkish world in international and regional relations for at least the next two decades is indicated by the document’s long-term nature.

Among the last important practical steps of the organization are the creation of the Turkic Investment Fund, the purpose of which is to ensure economic growth in the Turkic countries by financing small and medium-sized enterprises.

At a congress convened in Turkey in 2022, the Common Alphabet Commission of the Turkic world was established to accelerate the transition of the Turkic-speaking states to a single alphabet.

The contribution of the International Organization of Turkic Culture (TÜRKSOY) to the development of cooperation between the Turkic-speaking countries is also considerable. The organization was founded in 1993 in accordance with the joint statement of the Ministers of Culture of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The unrecognized Northern Cyprus and Russia’s Tatarstan, Altai, Tuva republics and other subjects, as well as Gagauzia (Moldova) were subsequently granted observer status in the organization. Against the background of the decline in Russian-Turkish relations in 2015, the leaders of the Russian republics were instructed to sever all ties with the organization. However, Bashkortostan and Tatarstan decided to retain their status of observers. The organization carries out activities to spread Turkic culture and strengthen cultural ties between Turkic-speaking countries. In 2023 the organization declared Shushi “the cultural capital of the Turkic world”.

The Turkic Culture and Heritage Foundation was formed in 2015 according to the decision taken at the summit in Astana. The Foundation secretariat is sitting in Baku. Another important institution unifying the Turkic world is the Turkic Academy, founded in 2012 by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkey as an international organization operating under the aegis of the OTS. The activities of the Academy are focused on the coordination of scientific and educational and sociological research related to Turkic literature, language and cultural history.  It also sponsors archaeological research. In particular, the organization recently claimed the discovery of the oldest artifacts testifying to the existence of the Turkic period in the territory of Mongolia.

The Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic States (TURKPA) was founded in 2008 in Istanbul. The secretariat of the Parliamentary Assembly is located in Baku. The Assembly works to strengthen ties between Turkic countries through parliamentary diplomacy.

Turkic world and regional interests

One of the important components of the political agenda of the Turkic world is to balance the influence of China and Russia in Central Asia. Russia is trying to keep Central Asia in the domain of its political and economic influence. Despite having dynamic political and security relations with Ankara, Moscow has a sense of jealousy about the possibility of further regional alliances in the post-Soviet area.

The Turkic factor is also a challenge for Beijing. Political relations between Ankara and Beijing are problematic and are negatively affected by the problem of the Uighur minority in the Xinjiang region of China. Ankara claims to be the protector of Turkic-speaking Uighurs.

Despite the problems in the political relations of Beijing and Ankara, the parties cooperate in major regional and international transport and logistics projects. The development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route as a multimodal corridor (via railways, sea and highways) will enable Turkey and Kazakhstan to link Europe with Asia. The Trans-Caspian International Transport and Communication Route, which is an integral part of the Chinese “One Belt One Road” initiative, starts in Southeast Asia and China and passes through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and Georgia to European countries.

Kazakhstan: Turkic vector or independent player?

One of the key roles in the Turkic world is assigned to Kazakhstan, which also makes a significant contribution to the Turkic cultural, economic and political integration. At the same time, Kazakhstan is one of the key members of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which has consistently expressed a frankly pro-Azerbaijani position in relations with Armenia, especially after the April War 2016. Nevertheless, In April 2024, at least the declarative positioning of the Kazakh side in relations with the Armenian counterparts turned out to be more friendly. In particular, the joint statement of the leaders of Armenia and Kazakhstan, made after the meeting in Yerevan, stressed the need to respect the principle of sovereignty in unlocking communications (which does not quite fit into the narrative supported in the Turkic world about the “Zangezur corridor”). Therefore, understanding the role and motivations of this gaining player of the Turkic world is of particular interest to Armenia.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey was the first country to recognize the independence of the Central Asian countries, supporting the comprehensive development of the region. For Ankara, Kazakhstan’s role is key in that the country is rich in natural resources and is positioned as one of the most important regional and international communication and transit hubs.

In essence, the idea of forming the Turkic Council, as well as the Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic countries belongs to Kazakhstan. In 2021, Kazakhstan initiated the process of creation of the Turkic Academy in order to preserve the Turkic cultural and historical heritage. Kazakhstan is also credited with the idea of establishing a Turkic investment fund. It is no coincidence that Kazakhstan was declared the financial center of the Turkic world.

In 2024, the OTS is chaired by Kazakhstan, guided by eight priorities of the organization: traditions, unification, reforms, knowledge, trust, investment, mediation, and energy / TURKTIME-“Turkic era”).

Turkey is one of the largest investor countries in Kazakhstan. In 2022, the trade between Turkey and Kazakhstan amounted to 6.3 billion USD. In the last 13 years, Turkey has invested 4.7 billion USD in Kazakhstan.

The vision of the Turkic world attaches particular importance to the development of regional energy projects, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan gas pipelines, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum, the Southern Gas Corridor and its components – the Transanatolian and Transadriatic gas pipelines.

On the other hand, Kazakhstan claims to pursue its own policy in the region against the background of Russia’s involvement in the war in Ukraine. Kazakhstan is trying to diversify its political, economic and energy strategy by balancing relations with major regional players – Moscow, Ankara and Beijing. The Turkic factor is an important platform for reducing Kazakhstan’s political and economic dependence on Moscow. In November 2023, during the visit of Russian President Putin to Astana, Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev first addressed both delegations in Kazakh instead of Russian.

Analysts consider such messages as attempts to alienate Kazakhstan from Russia. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan’s economic and energy dependence on Moscow remains significant. Russia controls the country’s main source of energy export, the Caspian Oil Consortium, which exports about 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude oil, accounting for 60% of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

Turkey – leader of the Turkic world

The dissolution of the USSR and independence of the Central Asian and South Caucasian countries opened up new opportunities for Turkey to expand its influence in the Turkic world.

The first steps towards cooperation among the Turkic-speaking States were taken in 1992, when the summit organized in Ankara adopted a joint declaration with the participation of the five post-Soviet republics (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan).

Turkey, led by Erdoğan, claims to be a leader not only of the Turkic and Islamic world, but also of the Arab world. Recently, Turkish National Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said: “Turkey is no longer contained within its borders. One end of our country is in Somalia and the other end is in Azerbaijan. We must establish acceptable conditions to communicate with all our friends and allies.”

In 2013 Erdoğan said that “21st century will be the era of Turkey and the Turkic world”. Erdoğan aspires to become the sultan of modern Turkey.

In March 2024, as part of the diplomatic forum in Antalya, on the panel devoted to the theme of integration and cooperation in the Turkic world, the head of the Turkish delegation to the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Parliamentary Assembly, former Foreign Affairs Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said: “Speaking of the Turkey’s era, we also mean the Turkic world.” Chavushoglu stressed the need for a strong Turkic strategy in the region, which will contribute to the development of sustainable economic ties between Asia and Europe.  Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, in turn, quoted Ilham Aliyev: “Our family is the Turkic world”.

As a sign of solidarity with Azerbaijan, Turkey is doing significant work to weaken Armenia’s regional position in both the Islamic and Turkic-speaking world, and to tighten the ring around Armenia. As a rule, this approach receives political and propaganda support in the Turkic world.

In May 2021, former Secretary General of the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States Baghdad Amreyev in a congratulatory message to Ilham Aliyev on the occasion of the Republic Day also touched upon the topic “Zangezur Corridor” noting that the implementation of this program will unite the Turkic world and will contribute to the development of the South Caucasus.

View from Yerevan

Unblocking communications in the South Caucasus will undoubtedly strengthen Turkey’s position in the region, providing Ankara with new opportunities to expand its influence in the Turkic world.

Armenia’s concerns are understandable. The spread of the influence of the Turkic countries surrounding Armenia, led by Turkey, will reduce Armenia’s manoeuvrability in the region.

On the other hand, Armenia cannot permanently close its borders and remain outside regional transport and communication and energy projects, which Baku and Ankara have been striving for for three decades.

If a peace treaty is eventually signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is still in question, the unblocking of communications could open new economic opportunities for Yerevan as well.

However, signing a peace treaty will not solve perhaps the most important issues: the lack of security guarantees and breaking the atmosphere of hostility between the two societies, which has been entrenched for decades against the backdrop of Armenophobia (anti-Armenianism) in Azerbaijan.

In some political and social circles, there are fears that opening the borders with Turkey will lead to its economic expansion. Let us not forget that Armenia and Turkey have dynamic trade relations in the territory of third countries, and goods imported from Turkey already occupy a significant share of the Armenian market.

One of the serious issues on the political agenda of Armenia is the deteriorating relations between Armenia and Russia, which is also a matter of concern. The Armenian authorities should strive to ensure that attempts to diversify Armenia’s foreign policy are not aimed at exacerbating tensions with a third country or countries or at totally opposing their interests. However, the monopoly of any capital will be at least problematic from the point of view of the sustainable development and security of Armenia.

Indeed, without exaggeration the official Yerevan stands before historical decisions, where the cost of mistake can be fatal.


These views are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the “Armenian Republic”.

Leave a comment